West Africa’s Palm Oil Boom: Record Harvests in 2025

The story of palm oil in West Africa in 2025 is one of both opportunity and challenge. Across the region, governments, private firms, and smallholder farmers are pushing vigorously to expand production, modernize farms, and reduce dependence on imports. Though not every country has hit “record harvest” status yet, many are on the cusp—and momentum is clearly rising. For traders, investors, and farmers, this is a pivotal year.

This article walks through what is fueling the boom, examples in Ghana, Nigeria, and Côte d’Ivoire, what challenges must be overcome, and what this means moving forward.

What’s Driving the Boom

Several converging forces are pushing West Africa’s palm oil sector into an upswing:

1. Strong Global Prices & Tightening Supply Elsewhere:- Global demand for palm oil continues to increase—driven by food markets, industrial uses, and biofuel mandates in Asia. At the same time, top producers like Indonesia and Malaysia are tightening supply due to internal policies (e.g., biodiesel mandates, export levies), climate, and labour constraints. That puts upward pressure on international crude palm oil (CPO) prices, making West Africa more attractive. For instance, Nigeria’s two major producers (Presco and Okomu) are projecting profits that hinge on CPO price forecasts of US$1,200 per tonne by end-2025, up from approximately US$900 currently. (Businessday NG)
2. Policy Support & Government Initiatives:- Governments across the region are launching new policies, investment incentives, plantations, and seedlings programs to grow capacity. Ghana’s government, for example, has launched the Redgold Oil Palm Plantation Project ($50 million) to cultivate 10,000 hectares, build processing infrastructure, and support smallholders. (Ecofin Agency)
   Nigeria has announced a plan for planting 1.5 million hectares over time, with a replanting initiative aimed at boosting output and modernizing old plantations. (NivoNews.com)
3. Efforts to Reduce Import Dependency:- Many countries in West Africa consume far more palm oil than they produce. Ghana is a prime example: domestic production is around 50,000 metric tons, while annual consumption is estimated at ~250,000 metric tons. That gap forces heavy import dependency and contributes to large import bills. The government is responding with policies to supply more seedlings, support farming, and require import permits to stabilize the market. (UkrAgroConsult)
   Nigeria, too, saw a 26% drop in crude palm oil imports year-on-year in Q1 2025, which local dealers attribute to improved domestic production. (Legit.ng – Nigeria news.)
4. Private Sector & Modernization:- Private farms and agribusiness firms are scaling up. For example, Presco Plc in Nigeria expanded its plantation holdings (through acquisitions) to increase hectares under cultivation, strengthen fresh fruit bunch (FFB) supplies, and improve processing capacity. (Tekedia)
   Similarly, Dekel Agri-Vision in Côte d’Ivoire reported growth in revenue from their Ayenouan palm oil project partly driven by higher prices and improved operations, despite some declines in production volumes in specific months. (London South East)

Country Spotlights: Where the Record Harvests Are Most Likely or Emerging

Here are how several West African countries are doing—with real data—on or near record levels in 2025.

Ghana

• Production vs Demand: Ghana’s annual palm oil consumption was reported at around 250,000 metric tonnes in 2025 while local production was only about 50,000 metric tonnes—so domestic output meets only about 20% of demand. (UkrAgroConsult)
• Government Programs: The “Red Gold” policy is central to Ghana’s efforts. It aims to distribute 1.5 million oil palm seedlings to farmers, support out-grower schemes, and integrate refining and processing. (News Ghana)
• Investment Plans: A proposed $100 million investment to plant 20,000 hectares as first phase of a larger plan to allocate 50,000 hectares to oil palm cultivation. (Graphic Online)
• Challenges: Ghana is also dealing with cheap imports, unregulated supply chains, and a shortfall between production and expected “record” output. Exports dropped steeply in 2024 (~50%) due to these competitive pressures. (The Ghana Report)

While Ghana has not yet achieved what might be called a “record harvest” in volume, the level of policy ambition, investment, and smallholder engagement in 2025 suggests it may be on the verge.

Nigeria

• Production Gains & Import Reduction: Nigeria has seen improved domestic supply, especially in early 2025. Crude palm oil imports dropped by ~26% in 2024 compared to the prior year—a sign that local production is stepping up. (Legit.ng – Nigeria news.)
• Profit Projections: The two leading palm oil companies, Okomu and Presco, are forecast to post combined profit before tax of about N231.5 billion (~US$…). Their profit after tax is projected at around N161 billion as global CPO prices rise and local operations scale up. (The Port City News)
• Replanting & Land Use: Nigeria is pushing a strategy to plant 1.5 million hectares in the coming years, support modernization, and improve yields from older plantations. This is a crucial piece if the country wants to turn harvests from “good” to “record.” (NivoNews.com)
• Supply Gaps: Nigeria still reportedly has a supply gap of ~450,000 metric tonnes between consumption and domestic production, which explains why manufacturers are ordering large volumes of foreign palm oil (e.g. 475,000 tonnes at various points). (New Telegraph)

Côte d’Ivoire & Dekel Agri-Vision Example

• Dekel Agri-Vision, operating in Côte d’Ivoire, reported that its H1 2025 revenue from its Ayenouan palm oil project is up about 20% compared to H1 of the previous year. Price strength of crude palm oil and palm kernel oil helped. (London South East)
• However, production volumes for CPO in H1 2025 were down ~9% compared to H1 2024, showing that price gains don’t always translate into immediate volume increases. But the fact that revenue rises indicate market demand and pricing are favorable, which can incentivize more planting and productivity improvements. (London South East)

Are There Record Harvests Yet? Not Quite—But Promise is High

It’s important to be precise: “record harvests” in the sense of highest ever output by volume have not been clearly documented across all countries. Many nations are still rebuilding capacity, replanting aging trees, and still face infrastructure and policy challenges. But what is record-worthy is:

• The rate of growth,
• The profit margins and investor interest,
• The reduction in imports,
• The scale of policy interventions, and
• The expansion of plantation areas and smallholder network involvement.

So while harvests aren’t universally “record breaking” yet, 2025 is arguably a breakthrough year in that many countries are getting close or have all the preconditions in place.

Challenges That Could Stall Momentum

While optimism is high, several obstacles threaten to slow or cap what could otherwise be record harvests:

1. Aging Trees and Yield Decline:- Many mature plantations have old palms with declining yield. Unless replanting programs are scaled up, yield per hectare will continue to lag behind potential. In Nigeria, old trees remain a recurring complaint among producers. (Businessday NG)
2. Input Costs / Inflation / Currency Issues:- Importing seedlings, fertilizer, equipment, and spare parts often depends on foreign exchange. Depreciation of local currencies (like the naira) raises costs, sometimes sharply. Energy costs (electricity, fuel) are also rising. These raise break-even costs and reduce margin, even with higher prices. Nigeria’s palm oil costs reflect these pressures. (Businessday NG)
3. Supply Chain and Infrastructure Weaknesses:- Transport, trucking, processing mills, refining capacity, storage—all are often bottlenecks. If fresh fruit bunches (FFBs) cannot reach mills quickly, or are spoilt en route, effective harvest is lost. Also, refining capacity lags in many countries, limiting ability to process locally, which would capture more value.
4. Competition from Imports / Illicit/Unregulated Imports:- Cheap or illegally imported palm oil can undercut local producers, making investments in productivity less appealing if margins are squeezed. Ghana has periodically dealt with this issue, and new policies (import permit requirements) aim to address it. (Ecofin Agency)
5. Weather, Climate, and Disease:- Palm oil is climate sensitive. Excess rain, drought, pests, or diseases can damage yields. Harvest windows can shift; without good agronomic practices, yield loss is a risk. Also, climate change means more unpredictable weather.

Real-Life Impacts & What Traders Should Know

For traders, the evolving harvest situation yields several implications:

• Prices & Profit Margins Can Rise Sharply:- Nigeria’s major producers expect significant profit increases if global CPO prices hit forecasts (e.g., US$1,200/MT). Revenue has already surged in many companies due to both price rises and production gains. (Businessday NG)
• Importers Will Feel Pressure:- As local production in countries like Nigeria or Ghana improves, the demand for imports may drop, or at least slow. For example, Nigeria’s imports dropped by ~26% in Q1 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. (Legit.ng – Nigeria news.)
• Quality & Certification Will Become More Critical:– As production scales, markets (both local and international) will demand better standards—both in terms of physical quality (oil quality, extraction rate, freshness) and in sustainability or environmental labeling. Firms that lag will risk being left behind.
• Investment Opportunities Are Expanding:- With policy support and favorable market trends, new plantation projects, refining investment, and out-grower schemes are increasingly attractive. Ghana’s $50m Redgold project and Nigeria’s massive replanting plans are examples. (Ecofin Agency)
• Risk Management is More Important Than Ever:- Given volatility in input costs, currency, and global supply policies (like export levies in producer nations elsewhere), traders have to build resilience—hedging, diversifying sources, building contracts, and being flexible.

What Needs to Happen for Truly Record Volumes

To move from a strong harvest year to record harvest status that can sustain growth, several structural changes must deepen and widen:

• Massive Replanting & High-Yield Inputs: Without replacing old palms with high-yielding varieties and using good agronomic practices (fertilizer, pest control, pruning), yield per hectare will cap growth.
• Scaling Smallholders with Support: Many farmers are smallholders with small plots. Scaling requires access to good seedlings, extension services, finance, aggregation points, and trust in market channels. Ghana’s seedling programs and out-grower schemes are heading in this direction. (AgriInsite)
• Improved Infrastructure: Mills, Roads, Storage:- Even if harvest is good, if FFBs are lost due to transit delays or low extraction rates, much of the potential is wasted. Investments in processing capacity, better roads into production zones, and cold chain or storage are needed.
• Regulatory Clarity & Trade Policy Stability:– Policies such as import permit systems, tariffs, export restrictions or incentives must be stable and transparent. Producers and traders must be able to plan long-term rather than react to shifting rules. Ghana’s move to require import permits for CPO and refined palm olein is an example. (Ecofin Agency)
• Sustainability & Environmental Compliance:-Increasingly, buyers (not just in Africa, but globally) insist on sustainability—no deforestation, responsible land use, fair labor practices. Complying with certification frameworks can require upfront investment but protects access to markets.

Forward Look: What “Record Harvest” Could Mean in Numbers

While we avoid tables here, some forecasts and numbers suggest what “record harvests” might look like for certain countries:

• If global CPO price reaches ~US$1,200/MT, as projected by some analysts, and local producers maintain or increase current production trends, revenues in the palm oil sector could rise by 30-40% for major producers in West Africa. Nigeria’s top producers are already forecasting profits rising to N231.5 billion in 2025. (Businessday NG)
• With investment, land expansion, and yield improvements, Ghana could narrow the gap between its 250,000 MT consumption and current domestic production (~50,000 MT); if production increases several fold, that would indeed constitute a record.
• Côte d’Ivoire’s private sector firms like Dekel Agri-Vision are already seeing revenue growth despite some production softness—this suggests that when price is high, even modest production can translate into strong earnings, thus reinforcing investment in capacity. (London South East)

Conclusion: A Boom On The Horizon, If Momentum Holds

West Africa’s palm oil sector in 2025 is not quite at universal record harvests yet—but many pieces are falling into place. Strong global prices; encouraging policies; planting programs; private sector investment; and improvements in supply chain and yield are all contributing to a rising tide.

For stakeholders—farmers, traders, investors—this is a time to act. The companies and countries that lean in now with good planting, better yields, and reliable operations will likely be the ones that report record harvests in the next one or two seasons.

The key is to ensure that growth is not just in headline harvest volumes, but in quality, sustainability, and efficiency. Only then will West Africa’s palm oil boom be sustained, profitable, and respected globally.